iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

This will be a hectic week. Earnings season is winding down, of course, but we have lots of economic data, starting on Wednesday with the core CPI, which is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month from 0.2%.

Futures traders now have their money on one 25-basis-point cut this year, down from two just a couple of weeks ago. Literally no one expects a raise this year.

Things are about to get interesting in the market. This week's CPI report could cause a big breakout in inflation expectations and rates.

The S&P 500 earnings yield is now slightly below the yield on fixed income. With the added volatility of stocks relative to bonds, this leaves fixed income as more attractive from a valuation basis at recent levels.

My biggest short position, XHB​​​​​​​, is behaving itself beautifully. I think there’s vastly more potential to go.

20+ year Treasury Bonds fall over a quarter of value in last three years.

Wall Street slumped into negative territory late in the week as renewed fears over inflation and trade tariffs eroded risk appetite.

US consumer confidence dips in Feb due to inflation worries, posing challenges for Fed's rate outlook. Stocks drop, yields surge, gold hits record.

Pre-Market Briefing: Feb 6 – Top trade setups using our 4-pillar strategy! $ASTS leads the way, $PBI gears up for earnings, and $PTON & $APPS ride post-earnings momentum.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

After a volatile week in the stock market, it has become clear to investors that utility stocks and bonds are what's considered safe in the near term.

Wall Street rose on Wednesday, with all major equity indices advancing as investors assessed the latest batch of corporate earnings and drew optimism from positive labor market data.

There are three areas in the market that could clearly command a rotation in the coming quarter, backed by economic tailwinds and themes.

The U.S. services sector continued to grow in January 2025, though at a slower pace than expected, highlighting uncertainty as businesses brace for potential tariff impacts.

3 Treasury ETFs to watch: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF and SPDR Portfolio Long-Term Treasury ETF.

The global sell-off will result in huge demand for inverse or inverse-leveraged ETFs as these fetch outsized returns on bearish sentiments in a short span.

US manufacturing sector unexpectedly expands in Jan, boosting business confidence but raising inflation risk due to higher input costs.

The Fed paused rates in a bond market calm that may be the still waters ahead of a market storm.

The 'Tariff Man' is back. I guess, at this point, those on social media who thought that tariffs were negotiating tactics and that Trump was just bluffing weren’t around during Trump 1.0. This version of Trump 2.0 seems even more emboldened.

What a week. Monday started with a huge gap down, followed by a big fill-the-gap rally on Tuesday, and then the week ended with an extremely negative reversal based on political news.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) and the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) ETFs will be in the spotlight after Trump's new tariffs announcement.

It is a wait and watch for the central bankers as well as the markets. If anything, the risk going forward is renewed strength in inflation.

In this week's video, we'll review the latest charts and data to help us answer the question, will tariffs, deep seek and valuations prove to be a deadly combination for stocks?

Several risk factors could end the bond market’s party, but for the moment US fixed-income markets are having a good year so far.

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