Heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration company Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR) reported Q1 CY2026 results topping the market’s revenue expectations, with sales up 2.4% year on year to $5.34 billion. The company expects the full year’s revenue to be around $22 billion, close to analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.57 per share was 12.1% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy CARR? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Carrier Global (CARR) Q1 CY2026 Highlights:
- Revenue: $5.34 billion vs analyst estimates of $5 billion (2.4% year-on-year growth, 6.8% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.57 vs analyst estimates of $0.51 (12.1% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $866 million vs analyst estimates of $866.4 million (16.2% margin, in line)
- Management reiterated its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80 at the midpoint
- Operating Margin: 4.8%, down from 12.1% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue fell 1% year on year (beat)
- Market Capitalization: $56.12 billion
StockStory’s Take
Carrier Global’s first quarter results were met with a positive market reaction, as revenue and adjusted earnings per share surpassed Wall Street expectations. Management attributed the solid performance to robust growth in commercial HVAC, particularly in data center orders, and a better-than-expected showing in residential and light commercial segments. CEO David Gitlin highlighted that global data center orders grew more than fivefold, and Carrier’s backlog now fully covers its $1.5 billion sales target for the segment this year. While residential HVAC faced ongoing challenges, healthy inventory levels and share gains in light commercial retail accounts provided some relief. The company also benefited from continued strength in aftermarket services, which Gitlin described as “double-digit growth for the sixth year in a row.”
Looking ahead, Carrier’s guidance is shaped by the expectation of continued double-digit growth in commercial and aftermarket businesses, balanced by softness in shorter-cycle segments such as residential HVAC. Management noted that recent tariffs, rising fuel and raw material prices are prompting additional price increases to offset input costs. CFO Patrick Goris stated, "Of the two points of price we expect to realize this year, about 75% is related to tariffs." Carrier is also focused on delivering new heat pump and data center cooling products, while remaining cautious about macroeconomic uncertainty and ongoing challenges in China’s residential market. The company reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance as it navigates these crosscurrents.
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Management pointed to three main factors shaping the quarter: strong commercial HVAC and data center momentum, healthy aftermarket growth, and proactive pricing actions to address rising input costs.
-
Data center business acceleration: Carrier saw a significant surge in global data center orders, up more than 500% year over year, with backlog already covering its $1.5 billion sales target for 2026. Management emphasized that new product introductions and increased technical talent have supported share gains and margin improvement in this segment.
-
Aftermarket and services growth: The company’s focus on aftermarket solutions continues to pay off, with double-digit growth for the sixth consecutive year. CEO David Gitlin highlighted that expanding connected device installations and targeting mid- and late-life upgrades are driving higher parts and service attachment rates globally.
-
Light commercial retail momentum: Carrier reported nearly 10% growth in its light commercial segment, attributing success to share gains with large retail accounts and the adoption of new high-efficiency hybrid rooftop units. Healthy field inventory levels and strong demand for retrofit kits are also supporting results.
-
Pricing actions to manage tariffs and costs: Recent increases in input costs, driven largely by new tariffs and higher fuel prices, led Carrier to implement additional price increases across segments. Management expects to realize an extra two percentage points of pricing globally this year, with about 75% of the increase directly related to tariffs.
-
European heat pump demand: Rising natural gas prices and favorable electricity-to-gas ratios in Germany and across Europe have fueled strong heat pump sales, with management noting a low-teens percentage increase across the continent. Subsidy applications in Germany rose 30% in the quarter, supporting continued adoption.
Drivers of Future Performance
Carrier’s outlook is anchored in commercial and aftermarket strength, while pricing actions and product launches aim to counter margin pressures from tariffs and macro uncertainty.
-
Commercial and data center expansion: Management expects double-digit growth in commercial HVAC and aftermarket, reinforced by the ramp-up of data center cooling solutions. Orders and backlog indicate sustained momentum, with new product launches scheduled for the second half of the year, including advanced cooling units and Viessmann-branded heat pumps.
-
Tariffs and pricing adjustments: Carrier is implementing additional pricing actions to offset recent tariff increases and rising commodity costs. CFO Patrick Goris explained that approximately 75% of the two-point global price increase is tariff-related. Management cautioned that input cost volatility remains a risk, but expects pricing to be neutral to margins by the end of the year.
-
Short-cycle and China market headwinds: The company anticipates continued softness in residential HVAC and light commercial, particularly in China’s residential segment, where CEO David Gitlin noted “no real signs of [the market] turning.” While share gains and inventory discipline are helping in the Americas, macroeconomic uncertainty and promotional pressures in Europe and Asia could weigh on overall margins.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will track (1) the pace of data center cooling product adoption and order conversion, (2) Carrier’s ability to sustain double-digit aftermarket growth and margin recovery amid ongoing cost pressures, and (3) the impact of new tariffs and associated pricing actions on both top-line growth and profitability. Additionally, progress in European heat pump adoption and stabilization in China’s residential market will be key markers for execution.
Carrier Global currently trades at $68.23, up from $61.74 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
High Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions
ONE MORE THING: Top 5 Growth Stocks. The biggest stock winners almost always had one thing in common before they ran. Revenue growing like crazy. Meta. CrowdStrike. Broadcom. Our AI flagged all three. They returned 315%, 314%, and 455%, respectively.
Find out which 5 stocks it's flagging for this month - FREE. Get Our Top 5 Growth Stocks for Free HERE.
Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+354% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.