Greenbrier’s Q4 results outpaced Wall Street expectations for both revenue and earnings, even as sales declined nearly 20% year over year. Management credited the company’s integrated manufacturing and leasing model, along with disciplined cost controls and operational efficiency measures, for supporting earnings. CEO Lorie Tekorius described the quarter as demonstrating the company’s “resilience,” highlighting strong liquidity and continued progress on streamlining production and overhead expenses. The team noted that while customer demand for new railcars remained cautious, order activity improved late in the quarter, particularly for higher-value specialty cars.
Is now the time to buy GBX? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Greenbrier (GBX) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $706.1 million vs analyst estimates of $655.6 million (19.4% year-on-year decline, 7.7% beat)
- EPS (GAAP): $1.14 vs analyst estimates of $0.87 (31.3% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $93.6 million vs analyst estimates of $88.34 million (13.3% margin, 5.9% beat)
- The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $2.95 billion at the midpoint
- EPS (GAAP) guidance for the full year is $4.25 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 3%
- Operating Margin: 8.7%, down from 12.8% in the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes fell 2.6% year on year (-25.5% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $1.50 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Greenbrier’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Andrzej Tomczyk (Goldman Sachs) asked about visibility into delivery growth and order momentum, to which Vice President Justin Roberts replied that visibility is good through summer, with expectations for increased production as the year progresses.
- Andrzej Tomczyk (Goldman Sachs) inquired about lease rate trends and renewal rates. CFO Michael Donfris and EVP Brian Comstock explained that lease rates are stable for specialty cars, with double-digit increases on renewals, reflecting strong market dynamics.
- Ken Hoexter (Bank of America) questioned whether the sizable Q1 gain on railcar sales would impact full-year EPS guidance. CEO Lorie Tekorius clarified that opportunistic gains were already contemplated in guidance, and timing of such sales remains difficult to predict.
- Bascome Majors (Susquehanna) pressed for details on production cadence and the likelihood of achieving midpoint guidance. EVP Brian Comstock and Roberts said the order book is filling and production ramp plans are underway, contingent on continued order conversions.
- Ken Hoexter (Bank of America) asked about elevated average selling prices for recent orders. Comstock noted this was due to a mix shift toward specialty cars with higher value, driven by Greenbrier’s focus on differentiated product offerings.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, our team will monitor (1) whether order momentum continues and translates to a sustained production ramp, (2) progress on cost control and operational efficiency—especially in European operations undergoing restructuring, and (3) the stability of leasing revenues and asset sale gains as market conditions evolve. Execution on these fronts will be central to Greenbrier’s ability to deliver on its guidance and navigate industry headwinds.
Greenbrier currently trades at $48.64, down from $53.49 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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