When there is uncertainty in the stock market, investors should pay more attention than usual to Wall Street analyst ratings and price target adjustments. These analysts rarely stick their necks out and risk their reputations – and careers when they make new calls during high-volatility events such as interest rate cuts and a slowing S&P 500; these mean a lot more.
The three stocks that earned analyst attention lately came out to be Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NYSE: DPZ) as a part of the consumer discretionary sector, then investors can look over Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT) to consider a new real estate cycle sparked by bottoming mortgages and new interest rate cuts. Finally, there is a growing trend in the financial sector, particularly for insurance stocks like the Progressive Co. (NYSE: PGR), as a slowing dollar is set to expand margins.
Before investors dig into the fundamental trends pushing these stocks and their potential valuations higher, investors should understand the broader macro picture surrounding these industries. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has created the main event through an interest rate cut narrative, causing markets to move ahead and price in future upside.
Domino’s Offers the Ideal Blend of Cyclical Growth and Safety for Investors
While interest rate cuts are typically good for retail stocks and other businesses in the consumer discretionary space, this time might be different. Data from the banking sector shows that credit card delinquencies and car repossessions have been on the rise for the past 12 months, signaling potential contractions and weaknesses affecting the U.S. consumer.
This is where the appeal for Domino’s Pizza grows for analysts, as it offers a discretionary product coupled with enough affordability to cushion out any potential cyclicality caused by these deteriorating consumer trends.
Now that the stock trades at 76% of its 52-week high, there is reasonable room to move higher in the coming months.
How much higher? Those at J.P. Morgan Chase decided to boost their price targets to $470 a share, up from $450 a share previously. This new view calls for up to 13% upside from where Domino’s Pizza stock trades today, which may have caught the attention of other players on Wall Street.
Out of the $2.7 billion in institutional capital that made its way into Domino’s Pizza stock, Marshfield Associates led the way with their recent 0.3% boost in holdings. This may not seem like much on a percentage basis. Still, it did bring their net investment up to $368.4 million today, or 2% ownership in the company.
Rate Cuts May Not Boost All Real Estate, But Apartments Stand to Gain
Historically, interest rate cuts have helped would-be homebuyers finance a new purchase, sparking new housing demand. However, today is a bit different for two reasons. The average home price is still over 35% more expensive than pre-COVID levels, which makes ownership too expensive despite potentially lower mortgage rates.
Because of this, single-family real estate might not do too well, but multi-family is another story. If people can’t buy homes, the alternative is to rent, which is where Camden Property Trust comes into play as a real estate investment trust (REIT) portfolio of apartments.
Seeing the stock trade near its 52-week high speaks to the bullish momentum and perception the markets have placed on this stock as the future looks brighter. More than that, analysts at Scotiabank decided to boost their valuations on this REIT up to $132 a share.
To prove these new valuations right, the stock must rally 6% from where it trades today. Facing these fundamental tailwinds, bears have slowly trickled out of Camden Property stock, judging by the declining short interest over the past quarter.
Even if the stock takes some time to perform further, investors can still lock in an inflation-beating dividend yield of 3.3% today.
A Buffett Bet Is Always a Smart Bet, and This Time It’s on Insurance
Investors are increasingly bullish on Progressive, one of the largest insurance providers. Following Warren Buffett’s recent moves into insurance stocks like Chubb Limited (NYSE: CB), there’s growing attention on companies benefiting from a bearish view on the U.S. dollar. In this environment, Progressive stands to gain as premiums collected in dollars may outvalue future payouts, given the currency's potential devaluation.
Goldman Sachs recently boosted its price target for Progressive from $262 to $280, signaling a 9% upside and a new 52-week high. Likewise, Legal & General Group increased its holdings in Progressive by 1.9%, raising its total investment to $1 billion as of August 2024. This increased confidence underscores Progressive's favorable outlook in today’s market.
The bullish sentiment surrounding Progressive stems not only from favorable market conditions but also from the company’s strong financial performance. As one of the largest auto insurers in the U.S., Progressive has demonstrated resilience in underwriting performance and premium growth, positioning itself to thrive even in an uncertain economic climate. Wall Street analysts continue to see upside potential as Progressive capitalizes on macroeconomic trends and strengthens its market position.